This week,steel mill inventory a small reduction,increased turnover,and social inventory has accumulated.On Friday,the social inventory of large steel varieties accumulated,increased by 35,900 tons to 9,982,300 tons month on week,among which the inventory of rebar decreased by 56,400 tons to 4,3222,200 tons.The main inventory varieties of wire and plate increased by 591 tons,36,300 tons to 1,37.87 tons and 999,900 tons respectively.In terms of steel mill inventory,there was a slight decrease this week,with a decrease of 22,400 tons to 4.337,700 tons compared with the previous week.Among them,the construction steel inventory increased by 533,000 tons to 2.35993 million tons month-on-month,while the plate inventory decreased by 277,700 tons to 1.7774 million tons.In terms of steel turnover,Mysteel has calculated that the average turnover of 237 distributors in China is 193,500 tons/day,up by 21.98%month-on-month.
Heating season will be announced,the steel production limit is still strict.The operation rate of blast furnace of 163 steel mills investigated by Mysteel was 67.54%,an increase of 1.24%compared with the previous period;the utilization rate of production capacity was 83.78%,an increase of 0.87%compared with the previous period.According to the information released by the ecological environment,the beijing-tianjin-hebei in and around 2018-2019 action plan for comprehensive control of air pollution in the fall and winter of engines have been approved to be announced,according to the requirement of the"action plan"beijing-tianjin-hebei around 2+26 cities in October 1,2018 to March 31,2019 will be a peak production,the key cities for the heating season steel restricting output 50%,other cities limit production of no less than 30%.And on September 6,the ecological Tangshan construction key work conference materials clearly required in August to stop and limit the production of steel mills in September shall not resume without authorization,and to 14 unauthorized resumption of steel mills named and criticized,it can be seen that the current environmental protection limit is still relatively strict,steel supply release is limited.
Steel profits remain high.According to our industry profit calculation model,this week the gross profit of rebar tons is 1291 yuan/ton,the gross profit of hot rolled tons is 1168 yuan/ton,up 103.42 yuan/ton and down 7.69 yuan/ton respectively.At present,the implementation of environmental production restriction is strict,steel supply is always limited,and the demand side of the slack season is not weak,inventory destocking overall better;Although the recent increase in the price of the cost end of the steel has a certain inhibition on the profitability of tons of steel,but the traditional peak season of steel in September is coming,it is expected that the price of Q3 steel is expected to remain at a high level,and the high profitability of the corresponding steel and steel mills will be sustained.
Infrastructure in the second half of the year to strengthen the weak links or will promote steel demand,steel market sustainability.This summer domestic steel demand toughness is strong,inventory destocking and turnover data are stronger.And the previous meeting of the Political Bureau proposed infrastructure to shore up shortcomings,or will further enhance the second half of infrastructure on steel demand pull.It is expected that with the arrival of the traditional peak season,steel demand will be further enhanced,superimposed on the supply side of environmental protection production limit,steel market sustainability.
Maintain industry"recommended"ratings.It is suggested to pay attention to high elastic targets:Valin Iron&Steel co.,LTD.,Liuzhou Iron&Steel Co.,LTD.,Sangang Minguang Co.,LTD.,Shaogang Songshan Co.,LTD.,Masteel Co.,LTD.,Nangang Co.,LTD.,Xingang Co.,LTD.