After entering September,the steel price started with weakness and the rise was weak,seeing that the"Gold nine"was about to fail,but I think the September steel price can still be expected.Below and listen to the author of a few positive factors.
One,environmental protection limits the aspect of production
Environmental protection and production restrictions have never been relaxed,especially in the steel town of Tangshan.Tangshan city ecological environment protection work leading group office yesterday issued the"Tangshan city ecological environment depth renovation month of action plan",although because of the details and other problems,at present the relevant departments have withdrawn the document issued.But the plan put forward in September steel production limit is no less than In August,still can not be underestimated.In addition to leak has not only limited to the tangshan area,linfen region distributed yesterday has been fully implemented,star,constant slightly(zhiqiang steel)of constant bought new jinshan,zhongsheng,(XiangFen area)all boring furnace production to September 20,map of houma area of constant,rakhine,restricting output by 50%,to September 20,on September 21,began to map of houma area boring furnace production,limit production 50%XiangFen area.The expansion of environmental protection production limit area has become a powerful factor to boost steel price confidence.
Second,the supply side
According to data released by China Iron and Steel Association,in mid-August,key steel enterprises produced 18.9552 million tons of crude steel,17.1707 million tons of pig iron and 17.8429 million tons of steel.The daily output and the increase and decrease compared with the last decade are:1.8952 million tons of crude steel,a reduction of 41,800 tons,a reduction of 2.16%;Pig iron was 1,717,100 tons,with a reduction of 33,600 tons,or 1.92%.Overall,the production of iron and steel enterprises has a small reduction,supply continues to maintain a tight state.It is also understood that the increase in maintenance around the situation(as shown in the figure below),some market specifications are still out of stock phenomenon.
According to the latest data,the area of commercial housing sales grew by 4.2%in the first seven months of the year.From January to July,investment in real estate development increased by 10.2%year on year.The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises increased by 3.0%year-on-year;The area of new housing starts reached 11.4781 million square meters,up 14.4%year on year.Has reversed the previous decline in growth.Form a certain support for steel demand.
With the increasing pressure of environmental protection and production limit policy,businesses have good expectations for the future market;At the same time,after the start of autumn,the construction site in the north to increase the rate of operation,downstream demand is expected to release,and in the end of the pressure,the finished product price is difficult to suppress,the steel mill is willing to pay a strong price.Therefore,the author believes that after a short-term rational correction,the"Golden Nine"can still be expected.